Let X be the number of purchases that Fred will make on the online site for a certain company (in some specified time period). Suppose that the PMF of X is P(X = k) = e-\lambda?k/k! for k = 0, 1, 2,…. This distribution is called the Poisson distribution with parameter ?, and it will be studied extensively in later chapters.(a) Find P(X ? 1) and P(X ? 2) without summing infinite series.(b) Suppose that the company only knows about people who have made at least one purchase on their site (a user sets up an account to make a purchase, but someone who has never made a purchase there doesn't appear in the customer database). If the company computes the number of purchases for everyone in their database, then these data are draws from the conditional distribution of the number of purchases, given that at least one purchase is made. Find the conditional PMF of X given X ? 1. (This conditional distribution is called a truncated Poisson distribution.)

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Answer: ???

Step-by-step explanation:

The given Poisson Distribution when solved gives these answers

(a)

[tex]P(X\geq 1) =1-e^{-\lambda }[/tex]

[tex]P(X\geq 2) =1-e^{-\lambda }-\lambda e^{-\lambda }[/tex]

(b)

[tex]P(X=k|X\geq 1) =\frac{\lambda ^{k}}{k!(e^{\lambda }-1)}[/tex]

What is Poisson Distribution?

Poisson Distribution is a distribution that shows how many times an event is likely to occur in a given period.

What do we mean by Probability Mass Function?

A probability mass function (PMF) is a function over the sample space of a discrete random variable X which gives the probability that X is equal to a certain value. Let X be a discrete random variable on a sample space S . Then the PMF f(x) is defined as. f(x)=P[X=x].

How do we solve the given question?

We are informed that X is the number of purchases that Fred will make on the online website.

We are given the PMF of X is

[tex]P(X=k)=(\frac{\lambda ^{k}}{k!})e^{-\lambda}[/tex] for k=1, 2, 3, .....

Now, we know that this is a Poisson Distribution with parameter λ.

(a) We are asked to find P(X≥1) and P(X≥2)

[tex]P(X\geq 1) = 1 - (P(X\geq 1))^{c} = 1 - P(X=0) = 1 - \frac{\lambda ^{0}}{0!}e^{-\lambda}=1-e^{-\lambda }[/tex]

[tex]P(X\geq 2) = 1 - (P(X\geq 2))^{c} = 1 - P(X=0) - P(X=1))\\ =1 - \frac{\lambda ^{0}}{0!}e^{-\lambda} - \frac{\lambda ^{1}}{1!}e^{-\lambda} \\=1-e^{-\lambda }-\lambda e^{-\lambda }[/tex]

(b) We want to find when the customer is making one or more purchases, that is X≥1,

∴ We need to find P(X=k | X≥1).

When k=0 we get P(X=k | X≥1) = 0.

For other values of k, we use basic probability theory,

[tex]P(X=k|X\geq 1) = \frac{P(X=k,X\geq 1)}{P(X\geq 1)}= \frac{P(X=k)}{P(X\geq 1)}=\frac{ \frac{\lambda ^{k}}{k!}e^{-k}}{1-e^{-\lambda }} = \frac{\lambda ^{k}}{k!(e^{\lambda }-1)}[/tex]

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