Students at a certain school were​ surveyed, and it was estimated that 28​% of college students abstain from drinking alcohol. To estimate this proportion in your​ school, how large a random sample would you need to estimate it to within 0.02 with probability 0.95​, if before conducting the study​

(a) you are unwilling to predict the proportion value at your school and​
(b) you use the results from the surveyed school as a guideline.

Respuesta :

Answer:

a) We need a sample size of at least 2401.

b) We need a sample size of at least 1936.

Step-by-step explanation:

In a sample with a number n of people surveyed with a probability of a success of [tex]\pi[/tex], and a confidence level of [tex]1-\alpha[/tex], we have the following confidence interval of proportions.

[tex]\pi \pm z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

In which

z is the zscore that has a pvalue of [tex]1 - \frac{\alpha}{2}[/tex].

The margin of error is:

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

95% confidence level

So [tex]\alpha = 0.05[/tex], z is the value of Z that has a pvalue of [tex]1 - \frac{0.05}{2} = 0.975[/tex], so [tex]z = 1.96[/tex].

(a) you are unwilling to predict the proportion value at your school and​

We use [tex]\pi = 0.5[/tex], which is when we are going to need the largest sample size.

So we need to find n when [tex]\pi = 0.5, M = 0.02[/tex]. So

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.02 = 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.5*0.5}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.02\sqrt{n} = 1.96*0.5[/tex]

[tex]\sqrt{n} = \frac{1.96*0.5}{0.02}[/tex]

[tex](\sqrt{n})^{2} = (\frac{1.96*0.5}{0.02})^{2}[/tex]

[tex]n = 2401[/tex]

We need a sample size of at least 2401.

(b) you use the results from the surveyed school as a guideline.

Now the same calculation, just with [tex]\pi = 0.28[/tex]. So

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.02 = 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.28*0.72}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.02\sqrt{n} = 1.96*\sqrt{0.28*0.72}[/tex]

[tex]\sqrt{n} = \frac{1.96*\sqrt{0.28*0.72}}{0.02}[/tex]

[tex](\sqrt{n})^{2} = (\frac{1.96*\sqrt{0.28*0.72}}{0.02})^{2}[/tex]

[tex]n = 1936[/tex]

We need a sample size of at least 1936.